⛅ Good morning. The market just wrapped Q2 with fireworks 🎇, and not the Fourth of July kind ;). Stocks closed the quarter at all-time highs, led by tech, trade optimism, and a quietly crumbling dollar.

The S&P 500 notched its best quarterly run since late 2023, while Meta and Oracle both climbed to fresh records. As we enter a new quarter, the key question: how long can this rally run?

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00pm ET.

Markets: The week may be short, but stocks rallied hard. The S&P 500 closed at a new record, marking its best quarter since December 2023. Meta also reached an all-time high as Zuckerberg continues his aggressive AI hiring push.

The S&P 500 closed Q2 at 6,204.95, marking a 0.5% gain on June 30 and a full 10.6% increase for the quarter—the strongest since late 2023. Nasdaq also ended June at an all-time closing high of 20,369.73, up 0.5% on the day, while the Dow advanced 0.6% to 44,094.77 .

Key drivers:

Large-cap banks gained traction as the Fed’s stress tests affirmed their capital strength. This boost contributed to a record close for the Financials sector index

Tactical Note:

Tech sector’s rise came from sustained AI optimism, yet trade risks and policy issues persist. The dollar’s weakness and IBM growth trends continue to support the narrative .

Tactical Note:

Industrials and materials saw inflows as momentum broadened beyond mega-caps. Renewable energy stocks, including First Solar, surged on supportive Senate bill signings

Tactical Note:

Tesla (TSLA) edged down 0.02% to close at $317.66 on Tuesday, following a tense public exchange between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump over federal EV subsidies.

The decline caps a rough stretch for the EV maker, which is also grappling with softening demand in Europe. Deliveries in Sweden and Denmark declined for a sixth straight month, raising questions about Tesla’s international momentum.

While Tesla remains aggressive in expanding its AI capabilities—particularly through its Dojo training platform—investors appear increasingly wary of political uncertainty and near-term margin pressure.

Analysts at Wedbush and Morgan Stanley reiterated long-term bullish views, citing strong positioning in autonomous software and next-gen battery tech, but acknowledged headline risk could limit upside in the near term.

Tesla shares are down more than 12% over the past month, currently trading near a key technical support zone at $317.

Nvidia (NVDA) slipped 0.1% to $157.99 on Tuesday, ending a seven-day winning streak as investors reacted to renewed concerns about potential U.S. restrictions on chip exports to China.

The semiconductor giant has surged this year on the back of strong AI demand and record-breaking data center growth, but regulatory headwinds continue to pose short-term risks to its global business.

Recent speculation around expanded export controls—particularly for high-end GPUs used in AI training—has added uncertainty just as Nvidia solidifies its leadership in the space.

Still, the dip is seen by many analysts as a healthy breather after a sharp run-up. Jefferies and Evercore both issued notes calling the pullback a “buy-the-dip” opportunity, citing a robust pipeline of hyperscaler orders.

Nvidia remains up more than 70% year-to-date and is currently trading just below its recent highs.

Oracle (ORCL) rose 4% to $218.63 on Tuesday, extending gains after unveiling a multibillion-dollar cloud contract projected to generate over $30 billion in revenue by FY2028.

The deal positions Oracle as a major player in next-gen enterprise infrastructure, with analysts praising its Gen2 Cloud momentum and growing AI compute capabilities.

Management emphasized the strategic nature of the agreement, noting that it significantly boosts visibility into recurring revenues and will help accelerate margin expansion through 2026.

In response, firms like Stifel, JPMorgan, and UBS raised their price targets, with the consensus now ranging between $240 and $260.

Oracle shares are now up over 30% year-to-date and sit at an all-time high, cementing its position as one of the strongest enterprise software performers of 2025.

And that’s a wrap for today. Q3 is here, and markets are already off to the races.

We’ll keep tracking the major headlines, from rate cut whispers to robotaxi drama.

Same time tomorrow,

—The Future Bytes Team

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